Published on November 10, 2007
LEVON TER-PETROSIAN’S GROUP WILL CONDUCT A POLL

Sociology has become the most favorite profession in Armenia, especially before the elections. As “Azg” daily informed before, according to some organization’s joint work the advantage of Serge Sargsian over the other candidates is indisputable.

As an answer to that poll, the partisans of Levon Ter-petrosian have decided to conduct their opinion poll among the population.

It’s informed that the poll will be conducted in all the provinces of Armenia.
* Translated by L.H.

As for how the media interprets the poll results, well,unfortunately, that’s a problem with polls everywhere.

However, I would like to see serious analysis and yes, I can believe these results although understand they are not black and white.

For example, Levon Ter Petrosian at 5 percent does not mean that. It means 5 percent have him as their first choice. However, if there were no other opposition candidates?

Anyway, you get my point, but for now I can quite easily believe the results, but what matters more is what happens next and how each side responds to their relevant rating.

Remember, this poll was about one particular Sunday. What about next Sunday? Or in January? Or more importantly, in February? The process has not yet ended.

My concern is – we don’t see any analysis, we don’t see anybody asking why is it, that Tigran Karapetyan and Gagik Tsarukyan have 4%, or like you’re saying, what has Serzh done wrong to have alienated 62% of voters, or what has changed since the last time a poll was conducted, etc.

However, the main issue is which of the candidates offer an alternative to Serzh, and I’d say that Baghdasarian and Hovannisian represent that more than LTP. For those that simply hate Serzh, LTP might well be the “alternative” if only because he stands more of a chance of uniting the opposition.

We’ll know more next week when we’ll see if independent estimates put the number of people in Liberty Square as higher, the same or lower than 26 October.

Re. opinion polls, sure they’re political, just as when people try to discredit them. It’s not whether they’re credible. It’s whether we want to accept them or whether we do. I’d say Serzh could quite easily have 38% support.

But rather than try to ignore such polls, although treat them with a pinch of salt, may I instead suggest that those against Serzh instead work out who to try to use the 62 percent who don’t support him rather than play the same old games that have seen them divided and weak in every other election?