I am saying Russian Specnaz/ Alfa Group is in Armenia. They came to Armenian just few days ago.

I haven’t heard these rumors although I’m not saying it isn’t so. Regardless, if Yerkrapah are going to choose sides it would have to be a lot and I’m not sure that’s possible. Still, I reserve judgment on this rumor just in case.

I am sure that Serje has less than 50%, maximum 25-30%. He is falsifier.

I think few people will disagree with you here. What people might disagree on, however, is whether Ter-Petrossian is using that to lead the march to freedom or to return to power just for the sake of it.

I am asking, are RUSSIANS going to decide who is our president?

To this question, the OBSERVER Reminds me that Levon has invited the RUSSIANS.

This is just naive argument. Levon has nothing to do with RUSSIAN Alfa troops

Hey, think before answering.

There is no real argument, in this blog.

WE NEED FAIR Elections. AND anyone who wind the fair election will be my president, I do not care who is that president.

But you discuss who is good, who is bad. This is just stupid.

I am sure that Serje has less than 50%, maximum 25-30%. He is falsifier.

Do not tell me that LTP falsified in 1996. Yes he did. But I do not care now.

What I want now is

1. Fair Elections

2. Russian Specnaz/Alfa troops should leave the country.

3. Those who asked Russian Specnaz to come to Armenia are traitors. In this case Serje and Robik are Traitors.

So, now it is about my country and not LTP.

LTP leads, so I am with him. ARF will lead I will be with them. Heritage will lead, I will
be with them.

I just hate RUSSIANS or any foreigners who are going to use physical or phcycological force in Armenia.

although he did send in the riot squad on 12/13 April

12/13 April 2004

Bravo Hayk, don’t make the same mistake our generation did by standing aside and then leaving the country because we didn’t want to start the bloodshed between our own. We have lost to kgb thugs and other dashnak scams, hope your generation wouldn’t.

You know, this is the interesting thing. People left Armenia under both Levon and Kocharian. Those that left under Levon hate him, and those that left under Kocharian hate him. It’s all relative and what it all boils down to is the fact that Armenia has had two authoritarian rulers and will now probably get a third.

Still, as someone who I won’t name said to me recently, at least the attempt at revolution has kept the authorities on their toes and perhaps that what democratization is. Under Levon, a political party was banned and the army sent out onto the streets after a falsified election. In 2003, Kocharian didn’t go that far although he did send in the riot squad on 12/13 April.

This time, for now at least, there are no reports of mass violations of human rights following election day as there were with Levon in 1996 and Kocharian in 2003 and 2004. Yes, I know, there might well be some, but let’s hope not. What is necessary is a weaker president with a more representative parliament and so I can only hope that we can all start working towards making the next elections better now so they are not the same as in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2008.

And I do mean now, and not when civil society smells another big pile of money coming from the United States for election-related activities.

There are 3 types of people in the world, those who make things happen,those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened.

“On another note – I’d like to assure everyone, that if any single Russian soldier/specnaz goes against my people – I will be in the first row fighting them. ”

I don’t think so Observer. remember Karabakh ?

Anyway, I’m sorry, there are good and bad people in both camps, and large number of people in between who don’t like either because of the bad in both. Neither candidate was the one that Armenia deserved but that’s what it got, rightly or wrongly. Now what is happening is that the government doesn’t have it all it’s own way. The battle is between those in power and those who used to be. The pawns are the population. However, what will be will be and as I’ve said, there should have been a second round

I don’t suppose Serge could have gotten more than 40 percent legitimately, and maybe not even more than 35 percent without resorting to vote bribes and even if it was 50 percent, a second round should have been called. It is because of this situation — pushing the votes just beyond 50 percent — that we’re here now and Ter-Petrossian, rightly or wrongly, is able to attempt to mobilize people. Even if he managed to get just 350,000 votes that’s a sizable number for staging a revolution.

Unfortunately, I hate the situation. It’s unknown whether Ter-Petrossian could have won a second round, but the risk for Sargsyan was there. Now, after all of this, that risk of defeat for Sargsyan is even greater, but that was their fault in the first place. I say that not wanting Serge as president, and not wanting Levon, or actually as someone who considers that it makes no difference for me as both come from the same system. The only difference perhaps would be with foreign policy.

It’s for that reason that I am now resigned to a number of possibilities and none of them favor one candidate. As someone said to me recently, it should never be forgotten that Segre is not president yet. It’s Kocharian and he’s ruthless, calculating and can handle a crisis to secure his own position. On the other hand, one western analyst said that Ter-Petrossian reminds him of Heydar Aliyev, especially regarding the ability to manipulate and exploit a situation for the sake of power.

But, whether it’s Russian or American, I don’t support the idea of outside intervention with the exception of calls for calm. This is a matter for Armenians to decide although it’s interesting to note that Ter-Petrossian was claiming Russian support until recently. Let’s see what will be. So far it hasn’t turned violent as some of us feared and that’s to be appreciated and acknowledged. What does concern me, however, is that while there might be 35-50,000 in Liberty Square, public transport has not been disrupted and nor have the police arrested protesters.

This means that unless it does swell to 100,000 or more, the battle is between two minorities in society and will largely be determined either by high profile defections or the use of force. Neither is the way elections should be handled, but that’s the situation and although this sounds somewhat cold, what will be will be. Of course, I hope that things don’t turn violent, but as the discussion on this page shows, emotions are high and this is the South Caucasus.

However, I think — hope — that we should all step back and take a deep breath and try to understand that if this is about Armenia and Armenians we should remember that. Ter-Petrossian and Sargsyan are authoritarian leaders with their own track records in political persecution, media censorship human rights abuses and falsifying elections. Those people that support Serge, Levon or anyone else are still citizens and have the right to choose.

From the woman in my local kiosk who voted for Serge without enticement or pressure to the general help in the same store who voted for Levon. From the two young students who voted for Serge even though they can’t quite explain why to the PhD student who voted for Levon, or the guy who voted for Vazgen Manukian not because he thought he would be elected, but because he disliked both Serge and Levon and didn’t want to waste his vote… they’re all good people.

And yes, there are bad people on both sides, but nobody has taken a survey to count them. Besides, last month’s pro-governmental oligarch known for terrorizing a district of Yerevan with shootouts becomes a “businessman and MP” when he defects to Levon’s team. Or Armenia’s biggest oligarch is described by Ter-Petrossian as a “moral man” who has never done anything wrong when his support is needed, and then cursed for siding with Serge on election day.

But then there are the good guys I know who are there in Liberty Square, or who voted for Serge, Vahan or someone else. None are traitors although we can argue about their respective candidates. Maybe they’re misled, maybe they don’t understand politics enough, maybe they’re too liberal, maybe they’re too nationalist… maybe they’re too human which is the point. They have that right.

Please, can we all start to respect that democratic right on this blog because if we don’t, whoever comes to power will be doing so on the basis of hate and not democracy.

I want to also inform you, that there are many girls reading this blog and its comments, and while I won’t edit any insulting words you have written above, if you or anyone else in this discussion writes any more insulting words I will just edit it out placing $$$$ signs instead of it.

On another note – I’d like to assure everyone, that if any single Russian soldier/specnaz goes against my people – I will be in the first row fighting them. However – LTP and his team have been spreading so much false information over the past several months, that I doubt the truth in your words.

Last point – please remember, that it was in LTP’s time, that Russian border guards stayed in Armenia. LTP could have sent them away from Armenia – but he was smart enough to understand, that we only benefit at this point by having the Russian border guards in Armenia. I’m no particular fan of Russians – but with the war in Karabakh, tensions with Turkey, negative population growth rates and overstretched military budget, we are truly lucky to have Russian troops guarding our border with Turkey.

Reflecting on your words, I think you’re simply racist – speaking about the Karabakhci, Russians, etc. etc. For one thing – I am Gyumretsi. How can I be sure, that after you guys are done with Karabakhci, you won’t turn against Gyumretsi, Artashatci, Meghreci, etc? And why does it matter what is a persons ethnic background? Who cares?

Too all those JAILAMS, who do not take side and can see Russians overrunning Armenia, BIG FAT WESTERN EDUCATED $$$$ TO YOU ALL..

George BUSH? $$$$ you all who support foreign intervention.

This not time for debate mother $$$$ers. ANY of you had serve in ARMENIAN ARmy? I highly Doubt.

$$$$ all Jailams and RUSSIAN intervention supporters

I dont support anyone and i dont take sides. i dont agree with you that i have to choose one, this is not a life or death thing. things wont change with LTP coming and serge going or vise versa.

YOU ARE STUPID $$$$$$$$ (NOT ALL).

I am saying RUSSIAN SPECNAX is in ARMENIA, and you continue lecturing me Allen?

I can argue and debate with every one, WHO IS NOT BLIND.

This is not LTP or Serje. This is not about ARF. This is about ARMENIA.

Hey stupid mother $$$$$$, Do you understand that RUSSIAN Specnaz in Armenia, since February 20. DO YOU UNDERSTNAND that?

$$$$ you all debaters. I do not care who you support.

I can debate you on NORMAL TOPICS, but not about the RUSSIAN SPECNAZ. $$$$ YOU ALL. YOU ARE TRAITORS.

This kind of words I use when I get mad on STUPID NAIVE and BLINDED people.

GO and Debate ALLEN, or any other mother $$$$$$$.

You are just TRAITORS. Do not try to teach me history, JUST ACT,. I know history enough to judge that RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT NEED ANY RUSSIANS IN ARMENIA.

Whoever seek the support of RUSSIANS, (I think Serge and ROBIK), but even if it were LTP, I would fight against LTP.

RUSSIANS are disaster for our Coubtry.

Go $$$$ yourself history teacher ALLEN. You are just bull-$$$$$$.

What you say is naive and clouded. To assume that LTP is going to do things better is asinine and laughable. This is a common phenomenon in armenian history you are witnessing. LTP cares nothing for the people. His track record speaks for itself as does serzh’s. Neither care. This is a struggle for power between two monsters. One using the promise of stability to gain support, the other, exploiting discontent, hatred and despair to topple the old regime. In the end, the only genuine alternative, offering stability, change, honesty, and progress–vahan hovannesian–has been ignored.

And arrogance is not appreciated or admired…nor will it convince people

I am glad that I could contribute to discussions on this forum.

I want to clarify my points one more time.

1. LTP is NOT my favorite candidate, but I SUPPORT him NOW. This is simple, I just have at least 1% more hope, than in Serje.

2. In my postings I stated that my personal belief and information lets me conlclude that LTP had 35-39% actual vote. And my personal belief that Serje got not more than 40% vote.

3. My third point was, take side ven if you do not like the candidate. YOU HAVE TO DO THAT. Those who are implementing “JAILAMI QAXAQAKANUTYUN”, they have problem, becuase they do not have analytical skills enough, to have at least 51-49% balance.

4. I statewd that I would be more glad that LTP joined Vazgen Manukian, but it did not happen and it is fact.

5. I stated that I would be more than happy if Vazgen Manukian or Raffi Hovhanissian could be president. BUT it cannot happen, it is FACT.

6. The other point was, that the Serje supporters are different than thos of Levon. I personally believe that 70% of Serge supporters are self-motivated.

7. My main point was, that this is not about LTP, this is about people. What LTP wants now? Fair elections. What Serge wants? To falsify elections and declare his victory. There is significant difference in this.

EVANTUALLY, last NEWS

I heard that the RUSSIAN SPEC-NAZ is in YEREVAN NOW. The arrived in yesterday with Serge. I herad also that RUSSIAN BORDER GENERALS are in YEREVAN no, discussing the tactics.

IF ANY RUSSIAN, is going to implement force agains ANY Armenian, who is Levon Supporter or who is misleaded by the LEVON, I do not care, I will personally fight against those RUSSIANS.

I WILL ALSO PERSONALLY FIGHT AGAINST THOSE WHO ARE BRINGING THOSE RUSSIAN TROOPS. IN THIS CASE IT IS ABOUT MY COUNTERY NOT LTP OR SERJE.

Now guys, go and support those 2 (SERGE and ROBIK), I do not care.

I am not going to waste my time to explain some “EDUCATED: people here ( I do not want to mention the names, it is clear for themself), what is a COUNTRY.

Go and hate LTP in front of your computers, MOTHER FUCKERS, but your are jsut JAILAMS, or STUPID ASSHOLES.

Russians ar egoing to decide who is our president?

I fuck LEVON, I FUCK SERGE and ROBIK. I am going to be next to my people and my DIGNITY.

ALL you Mother fuckers, stop to argue about LTP or Serge, go fight against RUSSIANS, and those who BROUGHT russian SPECNAZ to Armenia.

Fuck you all stupid democrats, or Serge SUPPORTERS or LTP supporters WHO DO NOTHING, expect BLOGGING.

YOU ARE ALL STUPID ASSHOLES.

Point about second round well taken.

I fully agree with you that the protests are not about democratic elections or fighting irregularities, but about getting Levon in power at any cost. That’s why I don’t support them.

Point one: agreed.

Point two: the issue for most impartial and objective observers is not that Ter-Petrossian won. In fact, nothing indicates that he did. Instead, it is likely that vote buying and irregularities/falsifications were designed to avert a second round.

However, I’m not sure you can say that all those people who voted for other candidates didn’t want Levon back. Or, maybe, but that might change in a second round when it really would boil down to a choice between the “lesser of two evils.”

Anyway, while I know good people who said they voted for Levon, I also know more equally good people who voted for Serge. I also consider that the accusations of treason from Ter-Petrossian’s side against anyone who won’t vote for their candidate unfortunate.

Actually, it’s pretty undemocratic. Whether they truly and genuinely believe LTP is the answer to the country is one thing, but denying the right of a citizen to make their own decision through insults and accusations is quite another.

Personally, I wouldn’t vote for either, but I’m not a citizen so it doesn’t matter, I guess. As for the protest demonstrations going on, btw, I’m thinking if I were a citizen would I join? To be honest, if such a movement can be used for simply fighting against irregularities and having the vote count overturned in some precincts, I would.

However, they are using it to declare Ter-Petrossian is actually president. Firstly, there is no indication of that, but secondly, even if there was, there is no way he would secure victory in a first round either. So, would I join now? No, not when they constantly use the demos more for claiming Levon is already president.

BTW: Interesting thing happened yesterday in Liberty Square where I was shooting. One supporter presumably camped out all night by the looks of him and there all day for the demo wasn’t sitting up straight when Levon arrived. One of the bodyguards grabbed his shoulders. “Sit up straight, the president is here,” he said.

It’s those aspects of Ter-Petrossian’s rallies that concern me although as I said, if they could be used as the basis for a genuine pro-democracy movement which would successfully challenge the first round results, then I can’t criticize it. And I say that as someone who could never vote for Ter-Petrossian even if I could, and while i realize that being seen as the figurehead for such a movement would probably translate as overwhelming support for the former president in new elections.

One other thing about yesterday’s rallies in case there is still doubt. There has been NO disruption of public transport with a normal number of buses operating all day yesterday. I took one down there and also caught the metro back. Regardless, the most important thing now is calm. If Ter-Petrossian is to rally people by his side let him do so with words and ideas and not threats, accusations and insults. Then I can have more belief in what this all is meant to represent.

I find your last two posts offensive and arrogant. That’s why this is the last time I am replying to anything in here. I am not going to get into great details, but here are a few points:

1. You claim that the people who voted for Serje do not care about their country. Why is it so difficult for you to comprehend that many people would prefer Serje to Levon precisely because they DO care about their country very much and they don’t want to see Levon return? You are free to disagree with that point of view, but you have no right to say that those who voted for Serge do not care about their country.

2. Serge got at least as many votes as Levon did (I personally believe he got more than Levon, but that’s not the point here). So, what makes Levon think he represents the people and Serge doesn’t? In fact, the majority of people (those who voted for the other 8 candidates) do not want Levon back. Do the math…

3. What makes you think you are the only educated one here? FYI, I have two degrees from Western universities, and there are many Western-educated people in every candidate’s camp. Plus, there is multitude of people who do not have western degrees, but that doesn’t make them any less educated.

I am not sure that Levon picked up more anti-Serge votes by “Western educated youth” than Serge picked up those who are anti-Levon. Many of the youth who are old enough to remember their fellow protesters getting their skulls cracked in 96, their newspaper offices ransacked and closed, the prospects of Artsakh being given away while the corpses of many of their siblings and friends who had fought (and died) were still warm…
…These folks are not simply gravitating to Levon just to “change things”. For many of them, Levon is the one candidate who should not return at all costs. Not everyone is as optimistic (foolish?) as your argument sounds, “Let’s give Levon another chance, simply because he is in opposition.”

I think there are many silent folks out there disappointed with the current reality, but scared of the catastrophe that this change may bring.

Ara, you need to have not only information, but also understand the underlying reality of those numbers, and you have to see the whole picture.

In August of 2008, I represented 3 economic models in front of Central Bank main staff, including the chairman of Tigran Sargsyan, and proved that all this dollar appreciation is not explained by economic indicators.

I asked the main policy makers very important questions that they need to know about economy, but NO answer. It does not mean they do not know, they just accepted that they know, but they cannot talk about that. It was about the dollar appreciation, was about real inflation (I proved them that inflation is higher than the Central Bank Reports, I proved by economic and mathematical models, not by taking couple of prices from the market), it was about economic recession in industry sector, it was about export decrease (in Armenian Drams or in real commodity Armenian export did not rise within last 7-8 years, it doubled in US DOLLARS ONLY, but US DOLLAR APPRECIATED in 50%), I also represented the model about the transfers we receive from abroad, the real number, the impact of transfers on the economy and et. and etc..

Then a week later Tigran Sargsyan victoriously invited all the discussion members to represent the new economic model that the Central Bank created. Within 1 hour, 3 of independent economist (including me) proved them that the whole concept of their economic model is based on unreal assumptions and expectations. We asked couple of theoretical questions, and techniques they used, then one I raised question about the RIGHT USE of their theory. Then a FOREIGN economist from big international organization stood up and backed us (3 of us) and supported that whole theory and statistical improvements they have used in their model are not supported by the theory.

So, what does this tell you. They just sit their in their cabinets and try to make numbers, they are just manipulating with numbers. I am insider and I know all this, I know all statistical yearbooks 100%, almost each number, each indicator. I just do not believe in the statistical Data the Armenia Represents. We have found many unmatched data in statistics (the most important one, 10 years in row the Armenia experiences economic growth and 10 year in the row, the consumption of electricity in Industry and production (including services) goes down).

What does this tell you? Judge yourself.

And to all those semi-educated, semi-informed guys who try to make point here, that Armenians are happy, the migration was in postive balance (25,000 last year), I will say go and get whole picture, and all the statistics and try to analyze. If you cannot, I will help you.

Do not bull-shit anymore. Anyone here who has one piece f information tries to represent as a Fact, but it is not. Because first of all you do not have CORRECT information.

Armenian Economy is on the needle (ASEXI VRAYA), if you do not have the transfers from Russia, US, if you do not have the foreign investments from Diaspora especially in the housing market, if you do not have foreign financing of budget deficit, the you do not have sustainable economy.

Within last 10 years our Economy went down QUALITATIVELY, but due to above mentioned inflows of foreign currency we had some kind of growth (not 13-14%, but 6-8%), and experienced some stability.

So go and think about your Serje, and emigration. Armenian Population did not rise within last year, otherwise we would have more production of bread and sugar (I am not talking about other products, that I could include in my analysis).

SO, THINK FIRST and then say that we live better, we are happy, that people are coming back to Armenia (25,000 posyitive balance? It’s just a BIG LIE).