Georgia and the Balance of Power
By George Friedman
The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It has simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This has opened an opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that on August 8.

[...]

George Friedman is Founder and CEO of Stratfor, a private intelligence company publishing geopolitical and security analysis at http://www.stratfor.com. He is author of America’s Secret War . His new book, The Next Hundred Years , will be published in January 2009.

Still, although the Georgian side also spread misinformation and propaganda, the initial casualty figure from the Russian side was truly outrageous.

It tried to shape public opinion even though it would eventually be discredited and shown to be false. Not to say that Saakashvili didn’t behave like a madman — he truly did.

But anyway…

http://ivonotes.wordpress.com/2008/09/11/information-vertigo-citizen-media-and-the-south-ossetian-conflict/

[...]
In an environment where primary sources of information are opaque and of uncertain reliability (and perception is key here), we encounter the phenomenon of information vertigo.

Information vertigo is the sickening feeling you get when you recognize that nothing reported can truly be verified. Mass media, ostensible eyewitness reports, images, video, documents: all blends into a mush of hearsay when root sources of information have been corrupted.

In the absence of a sense of what to trust, we develop a frantic, aggressive assertion toward what we think we know. This would be possible to puncture with facts if there were any to be found. But with a tipping point of misinformation, or disinformation, it’s difficult to judge when data is accurate.
[...]

Tatiana Lokshina, a Russian researcher for the U.S.-based group Human Rights Watch, said trips to a hospital, a cemetery and conversations with residents failed to corroborate claims by Russia and its South Ossetian allies that 1,500 and even as many as 2,000 civilians were killed.

Russian prosecutors have refrained from comment until their investigation of civilian deaths is complete.

“Ostrich’s Policy Is Not Helpful”
http://www.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&id=63721

(I just had to, it was just getting too grim around here…)

Ani jan,sorry for wrong link.
In my opinion,evil should be punished ,otherwise we will have second Adolf.

Anyway, “opposition” isn’t my characterization, it’s the one that a couple thousand stories are using. And I think it’s fair, whatever his particular brand of wackoism was. And if everyone with a racist website was taken away by police and shot in the head, there would be a lot a funerals going on around the world. It ain’t a pretty thing that’s happening in Russia now.

Moreover,today georgians accepted the use of prohibited cluster bombs in Ossetia.
Waiting for Patrick Worm response:)

http://www.gulfnews.com/world/Russia/10241508.html

Owner of Russian opposition website killed

08/31/2008 11:24 PM | Agencies

Nazran, Russia: The owner of an opposition Internet news site in Russia’s troubled Ingushetia region was shot dead on Sunday after police detained him, his colleagues said.

Magomed Yevloyev, owner of the Ingushetiya.ru Internet site, was a vocal critic of the region’s Kremlin-backed administration which is accused by critics of crushing dissent and free speech.

Interfax quoted the Russian prosecutor’s office as saying an investigation into the death had been launched.

Ingusheti is an Autonomous republic of the Russian Federation, on the northern slopes of the Caucasus mountains.

A posting on Yevloyev’s site – which has been the subject of repeated official attempts to close it down – said he was shot after police detained him when he landed in Ingushetia’s airport.

It said he was taken to hospital but died from his injuries. The site also called on “all those who are not indifferent” to his killing to gather for a demonstration in Nazran, Ingushetia’s biggest town.

“A preliminary investigation has been launched into the death of M. Yevloyev,” Interfax news agency quoted Vladimir Markin, a spokesman for the investigations unit of the Prosecutor General’s Office in Moscow as saying.

http://www.iwpr.net/EN-crs-f-346195

Times reported a couple of days ago that plans were already in place to incorporate South Ossetia and Abkhazia into a Russian federation and to build military bases. I put the link into a comment on Khosq, so you can read it there if you want.

Fingers crossed that “Khosq” is not a moderated term…

Regardless, you asked me why I wasn’t in Tskhinvali and I’ve told you. It was impossible from the Georgian side unless you want to be shot at or killed (as some journalists were — others were detained) and it wasn’t exactly easy to get into Gori when the Russians were there.

Fact is, the Russians controlled media and even attacked them. At other times, they simply refused to let them pass. Only journalists officially allowed into South Ossetia when I was there were those traveling from the North with Russian accreditation. Georgians didn’t require any accreditation at all and restricted none of us.

I’ve also mentioned that the initial figures from Moscow about thousands of civilians dead in South Ossetia were later found out to be false — by Moscow’s own admission. It is now officially at 133 although I daresay it will increase as the region opens up.

Anyway, long and the short of it is that Armenians have taken the Russian side and are believing the propaganda from a State-controlled media which doesn’t have the diversity that the West is fortunate to have. That’s not to say all reporting from the latter hasn’t been partisan either.

However, what seems to be the case is that this conflict was one which could have been avoided, but brinkmanship was the order of the day from both the Georgian and Russian sides. It was a stupid and pointless conflict and everyone is to blame for it — the Georgian and Russian leaderships, in particular, but also the U.S. and Europe.

Now I just hope the Russian troops will withdraw from parts of Georgia outside of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as see the deployment of a truly international peacekeeping force to separate the various sides.

Then, perhaps, we can all move on. Georgia has lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia through recklessness, but make no mistake that the Russians were ready for it, probably wanted an excuse to invade, and sent out a lot of false information to justify their actions.

The casualty figures were the best example of that. However, some concern has to be shown for the ethnic Georgian villages in South Ossetia although I daresay, like Abkhazia, the ethnic cleansing will be successful because nobody wants to see a direct military confrontation between the U.S., Europe and Russia.

Saakashvili is a hot-head nationalist, and the Russians knew it. Putin is a hardliner and willing to crush anyone who stands up to him. Both were a recipe for disaster. And a disaster in which civilians on both sides suffered is precisely what we got.