I just want democratic elections in this country!

Looking at excited faces, listening to hundreds of arguments as to who will win, and why its good for the country, I’m getting to the point, when I really really don’t care. I used to argue myself for this or that candidate, more specifically, over the past couple of months I sincerely believed, that the best option would be if we had an ARF-Dashnaktsutyun president, who would be facing a Republican parliament, and that would give some character to the Armenian Foreign Policy, and bring more socially oriented economic policies.

Today – I want to make a very subjective forecast of who are the first 5 presidential candidates in terms of voter sympathy (and I’m making this estimation based on my conversations with people of various backgrounds and careful reading of a lot of analytical material):

  1. I still see Serzh Sargsyan as the front runner – he might have close to 35% of voter sympathy.
  2. I have a feeling, that excellent PR and aggressive campaigning finally did it – and Levon Ter-Petrossian now has perhaps 20% of vote.
  3. Artur Baghdasaryan is the third.
  4. ARF-Dashnaktsutyun is coming forth.
  5. Vazgen Manukyan is probably the fifth.

Really – this is depressing, because I can’t stand either Serzh or Levon, and looks like either one of them will be president. On the other hand, I don’t thing things will be getting any worse, and today all I’m hoping for is democratic elections – so the image of the country doesn’t suffer once again, and really hope, that whoever comes to power, does it in a way, to be able to claim a reasonable degree of legitimacy.

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10 thoughts on “I just want democratic elections in this country!

  1. Ditord, you are reading my mind :)

    I was thinking of posting my forecast tonight and it would have looked very similar to yours. I am not sure about 5th place, but the first 4 places are exactly the same and in a same order for the first round of votes. In my opinion, in case of reasonably fair conduct of elections, Serj will get more than 30% and Levon – more than 20% during first round of votes. Then Arthur, and then Vahan.

    What I also agree is your last bit: “today all I’m hoping for is democratic elections – so the image of the country doesn’t suffer once again, and really hope, that whoever comes to power, does it in a way, to be able to claim a reasonable degree of legitimacy.”

  2. It’s really depressing that the most important aspect of an election in Armenia is so that it’s democratic and within the law.

  3. It is depressing – but it is the reality. One more depressing thing – in the entry I just posted above. I HATE THIS CAMPAIGN NOW! :(

  4. Hey is this one of those sociological surveys which are prohibited by law to release the results of in the week before election day?

    Anyway, I’m picking up more people who are undecided so it’s worth pointing out that the ONLY poll that matters is that conducted on polling day. Who will they vote for? That still remains more important than the core group of supporters for any of the parties.

    Incidentally, If your albeit unscientific gut feeling is correct there are 45 percent of votes split between three other main candidates — perhaps four as I suppose we can expect Geghamian to get about 3 percent but the rest 1 or less. That’s an AWFUL lot of votes floating around unaccounted for.

    You just need a little tactical voting here and there and it will and truly determine who comes in second which makes this weekend the most important of all before polling day. And sorry, gathering 15-30,000 people for rallies on Saturday and Sunday doesn’t represent over a million people sitting in their homes.

    Anyway, if there isn’t apathy on polling day then it’s anybody’s guess who will poll what. The problem with democratic elections, Stalin or somebody else said, is that you never know who will win. If there is apathy still remaining on election day then it’s quite simple. Vote bribes will be paid and Serge will win in a first round.

  5. Pingback: Armenia Election Monitor 2008 » Blog Archive » Subjective Opinion Poll, Administrative Resources & Black Propaganda

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  7. Pingback: Armenia: Post-Election Revolution Scenario? | Armenia | Fair or Unfair

  8. IT IS CLEAR THAT THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR MAKING SURE THE ELECTION WAS FAIR (ARMENIANS NOT OSCE) GOT THE HOLY SHIT KICKED OUT OF THEM. THUGS HIRED BY THE INCUMBENTS OBVIOUSELY PREVENTED THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS FROM TAKING PLACE. THIS HAPPENED IN 2003 AND 2004 AND THE PEOLPLE ARE GETTING MORE AND MO5RE PISSED OFF ABOUT IT!! WAKE UP OR ALOT MORE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DiE–I HATE TO SAY THIS BUT IT IS TRUE—IF YOU CONTINUE TO ACT LIKE CORRUPT DiCTASTORS ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE SOONER OR LATER–WAKE THE HELL UP NOW AND DO AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION ADMIT THAT YOU BEAT THE HOLY SHIT OUT OF JOURNALISTS AND THOSE ATTEMPTING TO ENSURE A CLEAN VOTE AND HOLD A NEW ELECTION THAT HAS THOSE DAMMN THUGS AT HOME PLAying nardi and getting drunk on vodka

  9. those who beat the shit out of journalists and other observers must be brought to justice. obviousley the incumbents hired these individulas to shut people up and this must be brought up in the courts–bring in the european union–osce and human rights groups. this must be stopped and admitted to by the incumbents–oh they will say i did not hire them–how stupid do you think we are???

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