Podcast: Between dram and dollar. Bloggers’ calculations, predictions and assumptions

Information about the US dollar trading at stock exchange is published almost every day in the print media. People hesitate whether to keep their savings in Armenian dram, or to hurry and buy dollars?
“They say that the banks shall not sell dollar and other foreign currency starting from today. If you have not managed to buy earlier, you are late,” Pataphysicus has written.
In the course of the discussion related to the above-mentioned post, the other bloggers have denied or confirmed the talks about the deficit of US dollars in the Yerevan foreign currency exchange shops and banks.
Ditord does not spread any talks. He compares the dollar demand at stock exchange on February 24-26. On those days, the US dollar exchange rate has remained the same at about 305 drams per 1 US dollar. However, about 15 million dollar was sold on February 24; 25 million dollar – on February 25; and just 3.2 million dollar – on February 26.
“Today’s (February 26) figure may mean one of the two things:
1) The CBA has imposed limits on exchange rate operations trying to prevent the fall of the AMD, or
2) The CBA has decided to give up selling off US dollars trying to maintain the AMD rate at the 305-306 level, and we will soon witness a significant fall of AMD value against the US dollar,” writes Ditord.
The blog of Caucasus Research Resource Center has attempted to analyze the increase of the Armenian currency against the dollar. The blogger has made use of EBRD’s 2008 Transition Report.
“The Armenian economy seems less dollarised, but, as the report notes, its real estate boom was heavily dependent on remittances. As those decrease, one would expect some impact on the currency as well,” predicts the blog of the Resource Center.
David_sand shares the details of his conversation with the “Big manager,” as he calls him. The blogger does not reveal the “Big manager’s” identity but mentions that he is an intelligent person that really comprehends the situation.
“As he predicts, the chance is that the same thing will happen to dram as it happened to ruble, as well as Kazakh and other weak currencies. He predicts devaluation of up to 40 percent,” writes the blogger.
David_sand discusses the phenomenon of the world economic crisis in general, coming to the following conclusion,
“What happened? Simply, everything fell into place. The crisis explained who is who, and which place he occupies in the world economy. It explained the Americans that it is very difficult to live in endless debts. Sometimes you have to pay all the debts, and not always within the mentioned term. The crisis explained to Russians that raw materials can never be more expensive than the product made of it. And it explained to others that you cannot construct your own economy in the image and likeness of the economy of superpowers.”
Download the mp3 audio podcast of this post from here or listen to it online by clicking the player icon below: