STRATFOR: Egypt Effect ‘impossible’ in Armenia

Opposition rally in the Freedom Square, Yerevan, 2008
Opposition rally in the Freedom Square © Photo by Artur Papyan, Yerevan, 21Feb2008

As protests continue in Egypt, there has been much speculation that similar developments could occur in the former Soviet Union.

STRATFOR, a reputable geopolitical analytical think-tank, says this is unlikely, as there are too many differences — both cultural and political — between Egypt and the former Soviet states. However, factors unrelated to the Egypt unrest have created risks for instability in several other former Soviet countries.

Armenia is not typically prone to large-scale unrest and protests, though recently the country’s opposition, led by former Armenian President and current head of the Armenian National Congress party Levon Ter-Petrosian, has called for a large rally Feb. 18 in Yerevan’s Freedom Square, citing Egypt as an inspiration. According to STRATFOR sources, the opposition would be thrilled with a turnout of 10,000 and would consider it a success even if just a couple of thousand people turned out. That turnout level would be enough to encourage the opposition to continue, as previous protests in the past few months have only drawn crowds in the hundreds. But it is unclear if they will be able to demonstrate at Freedom Square at all, because soon after Ter-Petrosian’s party revealed its protest plans, Yerevan city officials said Freedom Square would be off-limits because it would be the scene of “sporting and cultural events” from Feb. 15 to March 15. While the protest will be a key event worth monitoring closely, the opposition remains a limited force in terms of challenging the ruling authorities, so Armenia is the least at risk of the potential problem states.”

Read the full report here.

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17 thoughts on “STRATFOR: Egypt Effect ‘impossible’ in Armenia

  1. Well, a big difference is that in Egypt the army did not shoot the protesters but in Yerevan they (the army, police or whoever the masked men doing the killings were) didn’t blink an eye on March 1.

    Plus, Armenians choose to immigrate abroad. being few in numbers, they manage to do so without raising too much concern in the host countries. Try to have the scale of Armenian immigration in Egypt. that would mean about 25 million people migrating abroad. That cannot be tolerated by any host.

  2. What do you mean by masked men killing protesters. Do you know if there are any videos of those masked men on youtube?

  3. If we take number of protesters, I would compare Egypt with Georgia, rather than Armenia.
    Georgian opposition has heavier weight in the country, it gathers larger number of people around, it has better, brighter ideas. Which is a nonsense.

    Georgia, the country that eliminated corruption on lower levels of public administration meets huge protests from opposition, mainly related to freedom of speech and democracy. Partly related to recently lost territories.

    Meanwhile Armenia currently witnesses oppositional crisis. Sad to realize that Tigran Karapetyan is able to gather more people under his umbrella than those opposing current government.

  4. Up to now I can’t understand one thing.. How a betrayer turned to be a hero?.. And why up to now that “hero” is not jailed as our nation’s enemy?..

    It’s good that the same script will not take place in Armenia. I don’t really like the current government, but at least we are not in the same chaos as Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan are after their so-called revolutions..

    1. Well, no one thinks Robert Kocharian is a hero. You can’t deny that he has had a role in our victory in Karabakh but given the number of deaths he might be responsible for (starting from Khorkhoruni’s ‘suicide’ ending with the March 1 massacre), I would be hesitant to call him a hero.

      The same goes for Serj – there is at least one event that negates his effort in the war and that is October 27 massacre when he was the chief of the KGB.

  5. Levon, of course!
    And it’s so sad that some of our people trusted him.. Indeed, those people have a short memory and don’t even remember what he did while being a president.. And yet he was able to gather them and lead to the square…..and then escaped when it getting hot there… He who was screaming out loud let there be no other victim except me suddenly dissapeared and left them dying there.

    I don’t think it’s good what the government forces did, but it was even worse what he did.

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